Poker Probability Flush Draw
Posted By admin On 31/07/22The possibility of a flush draw on the board can turn a profitable eight-out straight draw into a six-out straight draw, rendering your odds insufficient. More about Anti-Outs and Blockers here. If you can't make an astute deduction of the value of your opponent's hands, err on the side of caution and always assume that they have the hand most. The Odds are defined as the ratio of the number of ways not to draw the hand, to the number of ways to draw it. In statistics, this is called odds against. For instance, with a royal flush, there are 4 ways to draw one, and 2,598,956 ways to draw something else, so the odds against drawing a royal flush are 2,598,956: 4, or 649,739: 1.
Here are some important probabilities in Omaha that returns in different situations. Knowledge about probabilities will help you to better evaluate situations in poker. You will , for example, know when you should call and when you shouldn't, and, vice versa, know when to fold and when the odds are in your favor.
Drawing hands probabilities | Odds | Percent |
---|---|---|
Double wraparound straight draw (e.g. hand: 9-8-5-4, flop: 7-6-x) | 0.48-1 | 68% |
Wraparound straight draw (e.g. hand: 8-5-4-x, flop: 7-6-x) | 0.67-1 | 60% |
Straight flush draw | 0.84-1 | 54% |
Hitting a full house with three pairs | 3-1 | 24% |
Hitting a full house with two pairs | 5.1-1 | 16.5% |
Hitting quads with a set | 21.5-1 | 4.5% |
Starting hands
There are many starting hands in Omaha (16.432 if not all suit combinations are counted), which makes it difficult to get an overview. Table 2 will hopefully increase that overview a bit.
Situation | Percent |
---|---|
A-A-K-K double suited to win against average hand | 73% |
A-A-K-K rainbow to win against average hand | 68% |
A-A-7-7 double suited to win against average hand | 72% |
A-A-7-7 rainbow to win against average hand | 67% |
A-A-J-T double suited to win against average hand | 76% |
A-A-J-T rainbow to win against average hand | 71% |
J-T-9-8 double suited to win against average hand | 56% |
J-T-9-8 rainbow to win against average hand | 49% |
Comments
Exemple of a double suited hand: Q♥ A♥ 2♦ K♦
Exemple of a rainbow hand: Q♥ A♣ 2♠ K♦
The best Omaha hands are less bigger favorites against an average hand compared to Texas Hold'em.
In Texas Hold'em, common knowledge is that A-A is very big favorite against all other hands. In Omaha, A-A as a part of a hand is far from that strong. In general, an A-A-x-x hand versus a random four-card hand is a 70-30 favorite in average (if all the starting hands that are normally folded are excluded, the A-A-x-x hands will be even less favorites).
Made hands versus draws
A typical feature in an Omaha Hi game is a set against a hand with several drawing possibilities. The made hand will not be a very big favorite (sometimes it is an underdog), so the recommended strategy is to play fast and bet/raise the pot in these situations.
Situation | Percent |
---|---|
Top set against flush draw | 70%-30% |
Middle set against flush draw | 70%-30% |
Top set against flush draw + two pairs | 68%-32% |
Set against wraparound straight draw | 52%-48% |
Set against double wraparound straight draw | 53%-47% |
Poker Odds Flop Flush Draw
Comments
Factors that can affect the odds are for example blocking cards.
Flush draws versus straight draws
In Omaha, hands with flush draws are often more likely to win than straight draws.
Situation | Percent |
---|---|
Flush draw against wraparound | 60%-40% |
Flush draw against double wraparound | 55%-45% |
Poker Probability Flush
Comments
Since that many cards are in action, there are often combined possibilities, which makes it hard to give general percentages. A hand with a flush draw has mostly something else, like a pair or a straight draw as well.
Poker Probability Of Flush
Related article:Omaha strategy